tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1651413709818481022.post3745899873551402712..comments2019-04-06T14:17:04.891+01:00Comments on Same Bat... Different Ball Game: Fixing The Women's Ashes Points SystemSydhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14792368170002037565noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1651413709818481022.post-29493243672282348672014-02-05T20:50:09.696+00:002014-02-05T20:50:09.696+00:00Cricinfo quote Lanning as saying "You could f...Cricinfo quote Lanning as saying "You could fix that by giving more points to the ODIs," and "Perhaps two ODI victories is similar to a Test match win" so this strongly suggests she is advocating 6 points for the Test but 3 for each ODI.<br /><br />This statement is a good example of not looking at the Maths because, believe me, this is a mathematical problem and quite a complex one.<br /><br />Under the current system the probability (assuming Aus & Eng are equally balanced and all matches are played) that the series is undecided after 6 matches is about 31.25%.<br />Under the quoted Lanning suggestion of T(6), O(3), O(3), O(3), t(2), t(2), t(2) this drops to only 14.58%. If ones thinks about it, its bound to be worse because we've just allocated more points to the earlier matches (ie matches 2, 3 and 4).<br /><br />One could reverse ODI and T20s to get T(6),t(2),t(2),t(2),O(3),O(3),O(3). This at least gets the probability back up to 31.25%. It even gets the probability that the series is still undecided after 5 matches to 62.50% (better than the 50% in the current system).<br /><br />If you go T(4),t(2),t(2),t(2),O(3),O(3),O(3) then the prob that the series is still undecided after 5 matches reaches 75% and 37.50% that its not decided after 6 matches.<br /><br />Lannings idea has one really good feature. Assuming no wash outs you can't get a tied series.<br /><br />Playing the ODIs after the T20s has one really good feature (related to your later open letter) - and that is that the women-only supporters WILL be able to see The Ashes decided ! Well almost certainly – both T(4),t(2),t(2),t(2),O(3),O(3),O(3) and T(6),t(2),t(2),t(2),O(3),O(3),O(3) give a nearly 92% chance that the series will not be decided before the ODIs start.<br />The Clangerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04760786835721279059noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1651413709818481022.post-89122245615837421712014-02-05T20:42:08.506+00:002014-02-05T20:42:08.506+00:00This comment has been removed by the author.The Clangerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04760786835721279059noreply@blogger.com